MLB Model Performance Report: July 2026 To Date
This report audits the July 2026 MLB top-five cards published through 2026-07-23. It is built from the same published daily-card and grading data that powers the results dashboard, then adds interpretation about what performed well, what did not, and what the data cannot prove yet.
89 win/loss decisions
Wins divided by wins plus losses
89 graded 8+ rows
Excluded from win-rate math
Executive Summary
July produced a 51-38 top-five record across 100 published rows, with 8 no-actions and 3 rows still pending or unmatched in the stored data. The Sweat Score 8+ subset finished 51-38, which means the main quality filter remained directionally useful but still needs market-by-market validation before it can be treated as uniform across bet types.
The strongest July conclusions are at the segment level. Markets with larger samples are more informative than one-off perfect records, while small samples are useful only as audit flags for August. No ROI is reported here because the stored daily-card data does not yet contain a complete published-odds field for every pick.
Performance By Market
Market splits show where the published top-five card performed best and where the sample needs more validation.
| Segment | Record | Win Rate | Sample | No-Actions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Batter Hits | 21-17 | 55% | 38 graded / 41 rows | 2 |
| Batter RBIs | 26-8 | 76% | 34 graded / 41 rows | 6 |
| Batter Total Bases | 4-4 | 50% | 8 graded / 8 rows | 0 |
| Batter Stolen Bases | 0-7 | 0% | 7 graded / 7 rows | 0 |
| Run Line | 0-2 | 0% | 2 graded / 2 rows | 0 |
| Pitcher Outs | 0-0 | N/A | 0 graded / 1 rows | 0 |
Performance By Side
Side splits compare over, under, run-line, and other directional calls without mixing them into one black-box record.
| Segment | Record | Win Rate | Sample | No-Actions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNDER | 34-15 | 69% | 49 graded / 57 rows | 6 |
| OVER | 17-23 | 43% | 40 graded / 43 rows | 2 |
Performance By Sweat Score Tier
Score-tier splits audit whether the published score bands separated stronger and weaker rows during July.
| Segment | Record | Win Rate | Sample | No-Actions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sweat Score 8 | 27-19 | 59% | 46 graded / 49 rows | 1 |
| Sweat Score 9+ | 24-19 | 56% | 43 graded / 51 rows | 7 |
Strongest Segments
- Batter RBIs: 26-8 with 76% across 34 graded rows.
- Batter Hits: 21-17 with 55% across 38 graded rows.
- Batter Total Bases: 4-4 with 50% across 8 graded rows.
Weakest Segments
- Batter Stolen Bases: 0-7 with 0% across 7 graded rows.
- Batter Total Bases: 4-4 with 50% across 8 graded rows.
- Batter Hits: 21-17 with 55% across 38 graded rows.
Daily Cards Supporting The Totals
| Date | Record | Status | Card Link |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 1, 2026 | 4-1 | 5/5 graded, 0 no-action | Open daily card |
| July 2, 2026 | 3-1 | 4/5 graded, 1 no-action | Open daily card |
| July 3, 2026 | 3-1 | 4/5 graded, 1 no-action | Open daily card |
| July 4, 2026 | 3-1 | 4/5 graded, 1 no-action | Open daily card |
| July 5, 2026 | 3-2 | 5/5 graded, 0 no-action | Open daily card |
| July 6, 2026 | 2-2 | 4/5 graded, 1 no-action | Open daily card |
| July 7, 2026 | 2-2 | 4/5 graded, 1 no-action | Open daily card |
| July 8, 2026 | 1-4 | 5/5 graded, 0 no-action | Open daily card |
| July 9, 2026 | 3-1 | 4/5 graded, 1 no-action | Open daily card |
| July 10, 2026 | 3-1 | 4/5 graded, 1 no-action | Open daily card |
| July 11, 2026 | 3-2 | 5/5 graded, 0 no-action | Open daily card |
| July 12, 2026 | 1-4 | 5/5 graded, 0 no-action | Open daily card |
| July 16, 2026 | 2-1 | 3/5 graded, 0 no-action | Open daily card |
| July 17, 2026 | 3-1 | 4/5 graded, 0 no-action | Open daily card |
| July 18, 2026 | 3-1 | 4/5 graded, 1 no-action | Open daily card |
| July 19, 2026 | 2-3 | 5/5 graded, 0 no-action | Open daily card |
| July 20, 2026 | 3-2 | 5/5 graded, 0 no-action | Open daily card |
| July 21, 2026 | 2-3 | 5/5 graded, 0 no-action | Open daily card |
| July 22, 2026 | 1-4 | 5/5 graded, 0 no-action | Open daily card |
| July 23, 2026 | 4-1 | 5/5 graded, 0 no-action | Open daily card |
ROI, Calibration, And Data Limits
ROI is intentionally not calculated in this report because July daily-card rows do not yet carry a complete, stable published-odds field. Adding ROI before that field is complete would imply precision the source data does not support.
Calibration and Brier-style scoring also remain limited because the stored daily-card article data contains ranks, Sweat Scores, and historical samples, but not a normalized predicted probability for every published pick. The August validation pass should store the probability at publication time so score bands can be audited against realized outcomes.
What Changed And What Comes Next
July included meaningful methodology and presentation changes: daily articles now include richer pick-level analysis, player dashboards expose more initial-HTML history, and results pages show graded records directly to crawlers and users.
For August, the highest-value validation changes are to persist published odds, model probability, model or prompt version, and the exact line source for every top-five row. That will allow ROI, calibration, and version-to-version comparisons to move from qualitative notes into measurable report sections.